It's
clear that casino games are supposed to make money
for their owners. In order to ensure this happens,
casinos offer games of chance that are based on what
mathematicians call "independent trial processes".
What this means is that the odds for any bet remain
constant no matter what has occurred in previous spins
of the wheel or rolls of the dice.
learn blackjack
strategy and win money
Take the
example of roulette. The odds against any number winning
are 37 to 1. Suppose number 7 wins. learn blackjack
strategy and win money On the next spin of the wheel,
the odds of number 7 winning are still 37 to 1. In
fact even if number 7 were to win 2, 3 or even 4 times
in a row, the odds it will win on the next spin are
the same - 37 to 1. The reason? The roulette ball
has no memory. It doesn't know or even care that number
7 just won. Each spin is an "independent event"
and no number is ever "due to win". The
number 7 has the same chance of winning on each spin
regardless of what happened on previous spins.
With this
information about roulette, the inventors of the game
knew how to get the edge against all bettors. It's
really quite simple. You just pay off winning bets
at odds that are slightly less than the constant odds
that players face when they bet on any number. The
odds against number 7 winning - or for that matter
any roulette number - is a constant 37 to 1. If you
win, the casino pays you at 35 to 1 odds (you win
$35 for every dollar bet). The difference between
the constant odds of winning a bet (37 to 1) and the
casino payoff odds (35 to 1) is what creates the casinos
edge. In the case of roulette the casino stands to
win 2 chips out of every 38 chips wagered by a player
or a mathematical advantage of 5.26%.
One characteristic
of all "independent trial processes" casino
games is that mathematically, with an honest game,
there are no playing and wagering systems that can
overcome the casino's edge in these games. A player
always has a negative expectation, which means over
the long term a player will lose more money than win.
When blackjack
was first invented, it wasn't so easy to figure out
how to put the edge in the casino's favor. There were
no computers to analyze the exact percentages on every
hand. By trial and error a set of playing rules were
developed which combined with the players playing
skills (or lack of) resulted over time in the game
winning money for the casino. But then came the computer-derived
playing strategies that were far more accurate than
a player's "intuition". By using these accurate
playing strategies, a smart blackjack player can reduce
the casino's edge to around half a percent. That means
a player stands to lose only 50 cents out of every
hundred dollars bet at blackjack. I don't think the
casinos ever intended it to be that close.
The big
difference between blackjack and the other casino
games is that blackjack is based on "dependent
trial processes". This means that are the odds
are not constant from one hand to the next. They change
depending upon what cards were played on previous
hands. If you were playing in a single deck game and
four aces were played, what is the chance of getting
a blackjack on the next hand? It would be zero because
there are no more aces left in the undealt cards.
On the other hand if you saw no aces being played
in the first few hands, the probability of getting
a blackjack would increase (since all four aces remain
in the undealt cards). The point is that unlike the
roulette ball or dice, the cards do have a memory
and the odds are not constant from one hand to the
next.
Another
factor that separates blackjack from other casino
games is that players must make a playing decision
after they make their bet. This decision will either
increase or decrease their chance of winning the hand.
Therefore, the level of playing skills for a blackjack
player very much influences his chance of winning.
So why
play blackjack? Because blackjack is beatable for
the above reasons and it gives skillful player's the
best shot at winning.
